Logistic Regression Modeling of Peatland Fire Hotspots in Bengkalis District Using Integrated Environmental and Anthropogenic Drivers
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63158/journalisi.v8i2.1560Keywords:
Bengkalis District, Fire Risk Assessment, Hotspot, Multicollinearity, Peatland Fires Prediction, Logistic RegressionAbstract
Peatland fires occur almost annually in Bengkalis District, Riau Province, Indonesia, where peatlands cover about 65% of the area and contribute significantly to carbon emissions and regional haze, highlighting the need for improved fire risk prediction. This research aims to apply a probabilistic logistic regression approach to predict peatland fire hotspot occurrence and identify its key drivers. Hotspot data from 2015–2023 were derived from VIIRS satellite observations and classified into low (l), nominal (n), and high (h) confidence levels. Then hotspot confidence levels are classified into two scenarios: (1) the nh scenario (l = 0; n–h = 1) and (2) the h scenario (l–n = 0; h = 1), representing different fire thresholds. The predictor variable was modeled using anthropogenic and environmental, with multicollinearity testing to ensure model stability. The results show that the nh scenario performs better, with Nagelkerke R² = 0.0681, Hosmer–Lemeshow χ² = 5.7663, AUC = 0.69, and accuracy = 95.19%, indicating acceptable fit and moderate discrimination. Significant predictors include plantation land use, peat characteristics, and precipitation. These findings suggest that the approach can support peatland fire risk assessment, although further refinement is required.
Downloads
References
[1] S. Ritung, “Sosialisasi Peta Gambut BBSDLP 2019,” in Webinar: Perubahan Luasan Lahan Gambut dari Hasil Pemutakhiran Pemetaan Lahan Gambut, Bogor, Indonesia, Dec. 2, 2020.
[2] M. A. Miller, P. Tonoto, and D. Taylor, “Sustainable Development of Carbon Sinks? Lessons From Three Types of Peatland Partnerships in Indonesia,” Sustainable Development, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 241–255, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.1002/sd.2241.
[3] L. Kiely, D. V. Spracklen, S. R. Arnold, E. Papargyropoulou, L. Conibear, C. Wiedinmyer, C. Knote 4, and H. A. Adrianto., “Assessing costs of Indonesian fires and the benefits of restoring peatland,” Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, Dec. 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27353-x.
[4] C. S. Deshmukh, D. Julius, A. R. Desai, A. Asyhari, S. E. Page, N. Nardi, A. P. Susanto, Nurholis, M. Hendrizal1, S. Kurnianto, Y. Suardiwerianto, Y. W. Salam, F. Agus, D. Astiani, S. Sabiham, V. Gauci and C. D. Evans, “Conservation slows down emission increase from a tropical peatland in Indonesia,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 14, no. 7, pp. 484–490, Jul. 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41561-021-00785-2.
[5] E. Quah, W. M. Chia, and T. S. Tan, “Economic impact of 2015 transboundary haze on Singapore,” Journal of Asian Economics, vol. 75, Aug. 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101329.
[6] M. Taufik, M. Haikal, M. T. Widyastuti, C. Arif, and I. P. Santikayasa, “The Impact of Rewetting Peatland on Fire Hazard in Riau, Indonesia,” Sustainability (Switzerland), vol. 15, no. 3, Feb. 2023, doi: 10.3390/su15032169.
[7] L. Hein, J. V. Spadaro, B. Ostro, M. Hammer, E. Sumarga, R. Salmayenti, R. Boer, H. Tata, D. Atmoko and J‑P. Castañeda,“ The Health Impacts of Indonesian Peatland Fires,” Environmental Health, vol. 21, no. 1, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.1186/s12940-022-00872-w.
[8] M. E. Harrison, N. J. Deerec, M. A. Imron, D. Nasire, Adul, H. A. Asti, J. A. Soler, N. C. Boyd, S. M. Cheyne, S. A. Collins, L. J. D’Arcy, W. M. Erb, H. Green, W. Healy, Hendri, B. Holly, P. R. Houlihan, S. J. Husson, Iwan, K. A. Jeffers , I. P. Kulu, K. Kusin, N. C. Marchant, H. C. Morrogh-Bernard, S. E. Page, A. Purwanto, B. R. Capilla, O. R. de R. Ortega, Santiano, K. L. Spencer, J. Sugardjito, J. Supriatna, S. A. Thornton, F. J. F. van Veen, Yulintine, and M. J. Struebig, “Impacts of Fire and Prospects for Recovery in A Tropical Peat Forest Ecosystem,” Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America, vol. 121, no. 17, Apr. 2024, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2307216121.
[9] M. A. Santoso, W. Cui, H. M. F. Amin, E. G. Christensen, Y. S. Nugroho, and G. Rein, “Laboratory study on the suppression of smoldering peat wildfires: effects of flow rate and wetting agent,” International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 30, no. 5, pp. 378–390, May 2021, doi: 10.1071/WF20117
[10] G. Rein and X. Huang, “smoldering wildfires in peatlands, forests and the arctic: Challenges and perspectives,” Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health, Volume 24, 2021, 100296, ISSN 2468-5844, ht10.1016/j.coesh.2021.100296.
[11] M. J. Grosvenor, V. Ardiyani, M. J. Wooster, S. Gillott, D. C. Green, P. Lestari and W. Suri “Catastrophic impact of extreme 2019 Indonesian peatland fires on urban air quality and health,” Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 5, no. 1, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.1038/s43247-024-01813-w.
[12] Fauziah, N. Hayati and L. B. Prasetyo, “Simulation of Land Use and Land Cover of Peatland Bengkalis Using QGIS.” International Journal on Informatics Visualization, vol. 9, no. 1, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.62527/joiv.9.1.2432.
[13] H. D. Cahyani, M. M. Lestari, and L. Diana, “The Determination of State Baselines Post-Peat Abrasion on Bengkalis Island as Indonesia’s Foremost Island in Terms of International Law of The Sea Perspective,” Multidisciplinary Indonesian Center Journal (MICJO), vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 1382–1401, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.62567/micjo.v2i2.639.
[14] S. I. Maulana, L. Syaufina, L. B. Prasetyo, and M. N. Aidi, “Pola Tutupan, Penggunaan, Serta Tantangan Kebijakan Perlindungan Ekosistem Gambut di Kabupaten Bengkalis,” Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management), vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 549–565, Sep. 2019, doi: 10.29244/jpsl.9.3.549-565.
[15] R. Nedd, K. Light, M. Owens, N. James, E. Johnson, and A. Anandhi, “A synthesis of land use/land cover studies: Definitions, classification systems, meta-studies, challenges and knowledge gaps on a global landscape,” Sep. 01, 2021, MDPI. doi: 10.3390/land10090994.
[16] R. Bambang Heryanto and Sukarman, “Peat Mapping on A Scale of 1:50,000 In Oil Palm Plantation Land, at The Peat Hydrological Unit in Musi Banyuasin Regency and The Implications of Its Use,” in BIO Web of Conferences, EDP Sciences, Apr. 2024. doi: 10.1051/bioconf/20249905009.
[17] A. Y. Abdurrahim, A. H. Dharmawan, S. Adiwibowo, H. Yogaswara, and M. V. Noordwijk, “Actors, Access, Markets, and Values Involved in Oil Palm Expansion and Peatland Degradation in West Kalimantan, Indonesia,” Forest and Society, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 376–402, Jun. 2025, doi: 10.24259/fs.v9i1.34533.
[18] L. Juniyanti and R. O. P. Situmorang, “What causes deforestation and land cover change in Riau Province, Indonesia,” Forest Policy and Economics, Volume 153, 2023, 102999, ISSN 1389-9341, doi: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102999.
[19] S. Mezbahuddin, T. Nikonovas, A. Spessa, R. F. Grant, M. A. Imron, S. H. Doerr and G. D. Clay, “Accuracy of tropical peat and non-peat fire forecasts enhanced by simulating hydrology,” Scientific Reports, vol. 13, no. 1, Dec. 2023, doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-27075-0.
[20] A. J. Horton, J. Lehtinen, and M. Kummu, “Targeted land management strategies could halve peatland fire occurrences in Central, Indonesia,” Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 3, no. 1, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00534-2.
[21] B. S. Negara, R. Kurniawan, M. Z. A. Nazri, S. N. H. S. Abdullah, R. W. Saputra, and A. Ismanto, “Riau Forest Fire Prediction using Supervised Machine Learning,” in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2020. doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1566/1/012002.
[22] A. Yusuf, S. Siregar, and D. R. Nurrochmat, “Forest and land fires spatial model in Riau Province, Indonesia,” 2018.
[23] A. Yusuf, Hapsoh, and S. H. Siregar, “Analisis Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Provinsi Riau,” Dinamika Lingkungan Indonesia, vol. 6, pp. 67–94, Jul. 2019.
[24] S. I. Maulana, L. Syaufina, L. B. Prasetyo, and M. N. Aidi, “Spatial Logistic Regression Models for Predicting Peatland Fire in Bengkalis Regency, Indonesia,” Journal of Sustainability Science and Management, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 55–66, 2019.
[25] M. Ohashi, A. Kameda, O. Kozan, M. Kawasaki, W. Iriana, K. Tonokura, D. Naito and K. Ueda, “Correlation of publication frequency of newspaper articles with environment and public health issues in fire-prone peatland regions of Riau in Sumatra, Indonesia,” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, vol. 8, no. 1, Dec. 2021, doi: 10.1057/s41599-021-00994-5.
[26] H. Hayasaka, “Fire Weather Conditions in Plantation Areas in Northern Sumatra, Indonesia,” Atmosphere (Basel), vol. 14, no. 10, Oct. 2023, doi: 10.3390/atmos14101480.
[27] K. A. Coskuner, “Assessing the performance of MODIS and VIIRS active fire products in the monitoring of wildfires: a case study in Turkey,” iForest Biogeoscience and Forestry, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 85–94, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.3832/ifor3754-015.
[28] Fauziah, L. B. Prasetyo, N. Saribanon, N. Hayati, “Vulnerability of Peatland Fires in Bengkalis Regency During the ENSO El Nino Phase Using A Machine Learning Approach,” MethodsX, Volume 14, 2025, 103128, ISSN 2215-0161, doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.103128.
[29] C. I. Briones-Herrera, D. J. Vega-Nieva, N. A. Monjarás-Vega, J. Briseño-Reyes, P. M. López-Serrano, J. J. Corral-Rivas, E. Alvarado-Celestino, S. Arellano-Pérez, J. G. Álvarez-González, A. D. Ruiz-González, W. M. Jolly and S. A. Parks, “Near real-time automated early mapping of the perimeter of large forest fires from the aggregation of VIIRS and MODIS active fires in Mexico,” Remote Sensing (Basel), 2020.
[30] T. L. Schindler, “Active Fires as Observed by VIIRS, January–September 2021,” Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA, 2021.
[31] L. Maulana, P. Suwarno, and T. Aris, “Global Warming and Its Impact on Mangrove Land Degradation on The North Coast of Bengkalis Island, Riau Province,” Journal of Agriculture (JoA), vol. 1 no. 2, pp. 2829–2421, Jul. 2022, doi: 10.47709/joa.v1n02.1574.
[32] Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Bengkalis, Kabupaten Bengkalis Dalam Angka 2024 (Bengkalis Regency in Figures, Vol. 14). Bengkalis, Indonesia: BPS Kabupaten Bengkalis, 2024.
[33] K. A. Hapsari, T. Jennerjahn, S. H. Nugroho, E. Yulianto, and H. Behling, “Sea level rise and climate change acting as interactive stressors on development and dynamics of tropical peatlands in coastal Sumatra and South Borneo since the Last Glacial Maximum,” Global Change Biology, vol. 28, no. 10, pp. 3459–3479, May 2022, doi: 10.1111/gcb.16131.
[34] H. Junedi, A. K. Mastur, and AR Arsyad, “Study of the Critical Limits of the Ground Water for Peatland Fire Prevention,” Proceedings of the 3rd Green Development International Conference (GDIC 2020) Advances in Engineering Research, vol. 205 hal 461-465, Atlantis Press, 2021.
[35] Bappeda Kabupaten Bengkalis, Rencana Kerja Pemerintah Daerah (RKPD) Kabupaten Bengkalis Tahun 2023, Bengkalis, Indonesia, Tech. Rep., Peraturan Bupati Bengkalis No. 36, 2022.
[36] Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), “Luas Wilayah Provinsi Riau,” BPS Riau, Agustus 11, 2023.
[37] Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan (KLHK), “Penetapan Peta Fungsi Ekosistem Gambut Nasional,” KLHK, 2017.
[38] F. J. Vasconez, J. C. Anzieta, A. Vásconez Müller, B. Bernard, and P. Ramón, “A Near Real-Time and Free Tool for the Preliminary Mapping of Active Lava Flows during Volcanic Crises: The Case of Hotspot Subaerial Eruptions,” Remote Sensing (Basel), vol. 14, no. 14, Jul. 2022, doi: 10.3390/rs14143483.
[39] P. Sofan, F. Yulianto, and A. D. Sakti, “Characteristics of False-Positive Active Fires for Biomass Burning Monitoring in Indonesia from VIIRS Data and Local Geo-Features,” ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, vol. 11, no. 12, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.3390/ijgi11120601.
[40] Y. Chen, , S. Hantson, N. Andela, S. R. Coffield, C. A. Graff, D. C. Morton, L. E. Ott, E. Foufoula-Georgiou, P. Smyth, M. L. Goulden and J. T. Randerson, “California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, no. 1, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01343-0.
[41] S. Shabani, H. R. Pourghasemi, and T. Blaschke, “Forest stand susceptibility mapping during harvesting using logistic regression and boosted regression tree machine learning models,” Global Ecology and Conservation, Volume 22, 2020, e00974, ISSN 2351-9894, 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00974.
[42] R. J. Hyndman and G. Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3rd ed. Australia: OTexts, 2023.
[43] L. Giglio, W. Schroeder, J. V. Hall, and C. O. Justice, MODIS Collection 6 and Collection 6.1 Active Fire Product User’s Guide, Version 1.0. College Park, MD, USA: University of Maryland, May 2021.
[44] S. Costafreda-Aumedes, Spatio-temporal analysis of human-caused fire occurrence patterns in Spain, Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of Lleida, Lleida, Spain, 2017.
[45] H. Tanskanen and A. Venäläinen, “The relationship between fire activity and fire weather indices at different stages of the growing season in Finland,” Boreal Environment Research, vol. 13, pp. 285–302, 2008.
[46] F. Kasim, A. Sabaruddin, and M. Hasan, “Forest fire susceptibility mapping using machine learning approaches in a conservation area,” Geosciences, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 1–20, 2024, doi: 10.2478/geosc-2024-0001.
[47] R. Suharyadi, H. Nugroho, and A. Nugraha, “Peatland fire susceptibility modeling using machine learning methods in Indonesia,” in Proc. Int. Symp. Remote Sensing and Intelligent Technology (ISRITI), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2020, pp. 1–6, doi: 10.1109/ISRITI51436.2020.9315359.
[48] Y. Zhang, Z. Liu, and X. Chen, “Machine learning–based wildfire susceptibility mapping using environmental and anthropogenic factors,” Remote Sensing, vol. 17, no. 3, p. 3378, 2024.
[49] T. N. Phan, C. T. Kieu, and L. T. Nguyen, “Modeling seasonal fire probability in Thailand: A machine learning approach using multiyear remote sensing data,” Remote Sensing, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 1–25, 2024.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of Information Systems and Informatics
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors Declaration
- The Authors certify that they have read, understood, and agreed to the Journal of Information Systems and Informatics (JournalISI) submission guidelines, policies, and submission declaration. The submission has been prepared using the provided template.
- The Authors certify that all authors have approved the publication of this manuscript and that there is no conflict of interest.
- The Authors confirm that the manuscript is their original work, has not received prior publication, is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, and has not been previously published.
- The Authors confirm that all authors listed on the title page have contributed significantly to the work, have read the manuscript, attest to the validity and legitimacy of the data and its interpretation, and agree to its submission.
- The Authors confirm that the manuscript is not copied from or plagiarized from any other published work.
- The Authors declare that the manuscript will not be submitted for publication in any other journal or magazine until a decision is made by the journal editors.
- If the manuscript is finally accepted for publication, the Authors confirm that they will either proceed with publication immediately or withdraw the manuscript in accordance with the journal’s withdrawal policies.
- The Authors agree that, upon publication of the manuscript in this journal, they transfer copyright or assign exclusive rights to the publisher, including commercial rights
